Global macro analysis for 27/03/2017:
The latest meeting minutes from the Bank of England Financial Policy Committee are full of interesting statements. The BoE policy members see financial stability risk as broadly unchanged since the November meeting. Nevertheless, the policy uncertainty is high in a number of countries, the UK household indebtedness and UK consumer credit remains high by historical standards and has begun to rise relative to incomes. This is why BoE will assess the financial stability implications of firms' plans to adapt to the United Kingdom's withdrawal from the European Union and oversee banks contingency plans to handle a range of possibilities arising from Brexit talks ( BoE wants to avoid any spillovers from any sudden adjustments to banks business models). In conclusion, the Bank of England do not see any immediate risk linked with the Article 50 implementation, but the uncertainty still lies beneath the surface, so the current BoE decisions should be seen only as a standard precaution.
Let's now take a look at the GBP/JPY technical picture at the daily time frame. The market had retraced the upswing to the 50%Fibo in January 2017 and tried to rally afterward, but the rally was capped at the level of 144.75. Since then, the price is slowly sliding down in oversold market conditions. This sideway price action might be terminated only by a clear, impulsive break out above the golden trend line resistance around the level of 140.00. Otherwise, the price will keep sliding towards the 50%Fibo level again.
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