Global macro overview for 03/04/2017:
The Australian Bureau of Statistics data showed that the Australian Retails Sales decreased -0.1% last month. The data were worse than expectations of 0.3% increase and worse than last month 0.4% increase. Nevertheless, the biggest increase had been reported in food retailing ( 0.3% in February), whereas clothing, footwear and personal accessory retailing was unchanged. Sales at household good retailers and department stores edged down 0.1%. In terms of regions, retail sales were positive in the regions of New South Wales, Victoria, and South Australia. Negative retail sales were reported in Queensland. In conclusion, retail sales are an important part of the Australian economy and were responsible for solid gains in GDP at the end of 2016 (2.4% increase), so let's hope this in not the beginning of a decline in retail sales. Next set of data and especially next quarterly data will shine more light on the situation.
Let's now take a look at the AUD/USD technical picture at the H4 timeframe. The bears have to manage to retrace 61% if the previous swing up, but the rally upward failed at the level of 0.7679. Since then the market is sliding again towards the 61%Fibo at the level of 0.7590. Any violation of this support will result in downward rally towards the level of 0.7539.
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