Global macro analysis for 19/05/2017:
Very good sales data from the United Kingdom has surprised market participants. After the last month drop of -1.4%, the Retails Sales With Auto Fuel increased 2.3% for April compared with expectations of an increase of around 1.2%. On a yearly basis, the sales jumped from 2.0% to 4.0%. The main reason behind the better than expected data was a positive impact on sales from the late Easter this year and good weather conditions. Despite this good set of data, it is worth to remember, that the recent decrease in real wages for the first time might limit the consumer spending soon. The Bank of England has factored this potential decrease into its policy expectations already, but for now, the immediate confidence is surging.
Let's now take a look at the GBP/USD technical picture on the H4 time frame. The market has broken above the anticipated level of 1.3000 with a high at the level of 1.3047. The current market conditions are overbought and there is a clear bearish divergence formed between the price and the momentum oscillator. To confirm the bearish reversal, the market must impulsively break out below the golden trend line support around the level of 1.2881 and head towards the next technical support at the level of 1.2828.
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