Global macro overview for 14/06/2017:
Another set of good data from the eurozone has been released. The ZEW Economic Sentiment index for the eurozone (a survey of about 275 German institutional investors and analysts which ask respondents to rate the relative 6-month economic outlook for the eurozone) rose to 37.7 points in June from 35.1 points the previous month. This was above consensus expectations of 37.2 and the strongest reading since August 2015. However, Germany's ZEW Economic Sentiment index declined from 20.6 points to 18.6 points in the reported month, while the ZEW Current Situation index increased from 83.9 points to 88.0 points. There was a monthly improvement in both current expectations and the outlook in France and Italy as well, so the data will still provide some relief for the eurozone overall trends. In conclusion, despite a small decline in inflation expectations, the overall confidence in the euro area's economic growth remains strong and it is being backed by the ECB monetary policy. Moreover, political sentiment has improved as well since French President Emmanuel Macron's party in the National Assembly elections also boosted confidence.
The euro will be supported by the ECB loose monetary policy as long as it is necessary, especially as the recent inflation reading shows a lack of pressure. The ECB will maintain the wait-and-see approach towards the eurozone's economic growth to manage the risk tail. The interest rates should not go below 0.0% anytime soon.
Let's now take a look at the EUR/GBP technical picture on the daily time frame. The market has been capped at the technical resistance at the level of 0.8855 and slid to the nearest technical support at the level of 0.8791. The price is trading above all the moving averages and only a clear breakout below the level of 0.8645 would change bias from bullish to bearish.
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