Global macro overview for 01/08/2017:
At the end of the month, the global investor's portfolio shuffles are mainly responsible for the last wave of US Dollar weakness, but the political information that comes out is not helpful either. The White House reports that Anthony Scaramucci, Director of Communications, has resigned only 10 days after his appointment. Circumstances remain unclear and are only blurring the picture of Trump's administration and whether it can effectively conduct economic policy. Meanwhile, the Health Bill can not go through Congress at all, because it can not even be supported by the Republicans. Just as Trump's victory was supportive of the US Dollar at the end of last year, now it looks like a ball in a leg. Currently, there is little hope of US Dollar bulls that US fiscal policy will revive reflux trends (and consequently lead to more restrictive FEDpolicy). Of course, nothing is definitively determined and autumn may look completely different both for Trump's success in tax reform and in the context of inflation shocks from one-off factors. But the market needs evidence, and neither Congress nor any US macro data do not deliver it at this time. The nearest hope for a trend reversal comes on Friday, but only if the dynamics of wages in the labor market report will positively surprise the market participants. Albeit of political influences, only this economic factor might change the current very negative outlook of the US Dollar in the near-term.
Let's take a look at the US Dollar Index technical picture at the H4 timeframe. The market dipped below the technical support at the level of 93.02 and despite the oversold market conditions is so far unable to bounce higher. The next technical support is seen at the level of 91.93.
No comments:
Post a Comment