Global macro overview for 25/08/2017:
The central banker's symposium in Jackson Hole has a long story of crucial banking declarations in the past. Yellen's predecessor, Ben Bernanke, who signaled an Operation Twist, or one of the QE program's previews, liked this place very much. Mario Draghi in 2014 also suggested the inevitability of aggressive continuation of loosening policies, citing negative trends in inflation expectations. Nevertheless, the crucial declarations are highly unlikely this year, but investors will continue to scrutinize the slightest suggestions on the future of major central bank monetary policy. Recent ECB leaks from the Reuters agency indicate that all waiting for Mario Draghi's announcement of the end of the era will be disappointing. In addition, the ECB Minutes revealed some concern to the ECB Governing Council by the Euro currency strength. Direct, open verbal interventions are not in the hands of European policy makers, but such a state of affairs should guarantee greater restraint in optimistic statements. For this reason, Draghi in his speech should stick to the dovish rhetoric emphasizing the calm, patience and caution of the ECB Governing Council.
Let's now take a look a the EUR/CHF technical picture at the H4 time frame. Taking into account the late hour of the Mario Draghi speech, most market participants will discount the information obtained by the symposium next week. The end of the New York session trading may be chaotic and jerky. Just like the other Euro related pairs, the EUR/CHF is trading in a narrow range between the levels of 1.1423 - 1.1260 in a neutral market condition. The golden trend line acts as a dynamic resistance for the price and only a sustained breakout above the level of 1.1423 might be considered bullish.
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