Global macro overview for 06/09/2017:
The recent comments from the Federal Reserve Bank policy makers are making hard times for the US Dollar bulls even worse. According to the recent remarks from US Federal Reserve's Board of Governors member Lael Brainard, the monetary policy in the United States should continue to be very careful. Another Federal Reserve policy maker, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Chairperson Robert Kaplan supported her view and said, that investors are expected to keep rates low and should not abandon a prudent policy based on macro data. In his opinion, it is still possible or even acceptable for a third rate hike this year, but it would be better to wait for more economic publications first. In addition, Kaplan expects relatively low US GDP growth for this year: 2.25%.
Every topic that investors focus on this week is the US Dollar and its disadvantage. North Korean threats engage the US government to respond and it is even difficult to gauge the risk of the armed conflict, so the markets prefer flight to safe-haven assets. In addition, Hurricane Irma is approaching the coast of Florida, which has already been named the most powerful hurricane in the Atlantic. It is also feared that by the end of September the US threatens the so-called "government shutdown" and a debt ceiling, although today's vote on the Hurricane Harvey disaster package in Texas and Louisiana should divert the risk of freezing public administration work. In conclusion, it is very difficult time to be a US Dollar bull, but all down trends will end at some point in time. anyway.
Let's now take a look at the US Dollar technical picture on the H4 time frame. The technical situation does not look good as well. The golden trend line has not been violated, so the market reversed around the level of 93.35 and now is moving lower towards the recent swing low at the level of 91.93, which means another lower low in the down trend might be made soon.
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