Trading plan for 19/02/2018

The currency market is more or less where it was left on Friday after a correction before the long weekend. Today, apart from the excluded Chinese market, there is a holiday in the USA and Canada, so liquidity may not be a strong attribute of trade.

On Monday 19th of February, the event calendar is light in important news releases, but the market participants should keep an eye on Rightmove House Prices data from the UK and Bundesbank Monthly Report data from Germany.

EUR/USD analysis for 19/02/2018:

Trading activity in Asia was thin and this will be like that for all Monday: China has Lunar New Year holidays and US markets are shut for Presidents' Day. Not much on the event calendar either, except for the Bundesbank Monthly Report data. It contains relevant articles, speeches, statistical tables, and provides a detailed analysis of current and future economic conditions from the bank's viewpoint. Market impact tends to be greater when the report reveals a viewpoint that clashes with the ECB's stance.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture in the H4 time frame. The market broke through the recent swing top at the level of 1.2539 and mace a new local high at the level of 1.2555, but quickly reversed back towards the technical support at the level of 1.2384. So the breakout was a fake one and now the market is back to the consolidation zone. If the price will fell out of the dashed black channel, then the next support is seen at the level of 1.2333 level.

Market Snapshot: SPY hit the next resistance

The price of SPY (SP500 ETF) has hit the next technical resistance at the level of 275.27 and now is pulling back from this level. The nearest support is seen at the level of 272.32, so if it will hold, then another leg up is possible. Please notice the market conditions remain overbought.

Market Snapshot: DAX testing the resistance

The price of German DAX index has bounced higher towards the level of 12,505 and now is testing this level. Any breakthrough will lead to the test of the next technical resistance at the level of 12,676. The stochastic indicator bounce from the oversold levels supports this view.