Trading plan for 20/02/2018

In the holiday season, the currency market makes uncorrelated movements that are difficult to attribute to a specific reason. The USD continues to slowly strengthen across the board, only AUD is currently higher. In the commodity market, gold and copper are falling down, but oil is holding tight.

On Tuesday 20th of February, the event calendar is light in important economic releases, but the market participants should keep an eye on German PPI, ZEW Economic Sentiment and Current Situation data, Eurozone Consumer Confidence and ZEW Economic Sentiment data and Canadian Wholesale Sales.

AUD/USD analysis for 20/02/2018:

Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes from the last RBA meeting did not bring any surprises. In the bank's opinion, inflation will accelerate "only gradually", just as wage pressure, despite solid economic prospects. However, there is still uncertainty about the situation of consumers and the real estate market. The cautious tone suggests that the bank is not preparing to tighten its policy in the near future.

Let's now take a look at the AUD/USD technical picture in the H4 time frame. The market managed to test the 61% Fibo retracement but was too weak to break through it, so it went lower towards the technical support at the level of 0.7897. Th overbought market conditions indicate a possible slide lower towards the level of 0.7845 and even a test of the recent low at the level of 0.7765.

Market Snapshot: DAX still under the resistance

The price of German DAX index has tested the level of 12,503, despite the higher lows at the H4 chart it did not manage to break through yet. Nevertheless, in a case of a breakout, the next resistance is seen at the level of 12,676, but it will be tested only if the old neckline resistance is clearly violated.

Market Snapshot: Gold rally pauses

The price of Gold was rallying higher after a bounce from the support at the level of $1,308 and almost tested the old swing high at the level of $1,365. Nevertheless, the price has made a new local high at the level of $1,361 and reversed towards the technical support at the level of $1,331. This move is being supported by falling both stochastic and momentum indicators.